Professional
Added to YB: 2024-05-22
Pitch date: 2024-05-16
MOS [bullish]
The Mosaic Company
+3.01%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients.
Market Cap
$9.4B
Pitch Price
$29.28
Price Target
40.00 (+33%)
Dividend
2.97%
EV/EBITDA
5.51
P/E
7.67
EV/Sales
1.20
Sector
Chemicals
Category
value
The Mosaic Company: Potash: We See Prices Rising After 2024 and View Mosaic and Nutrien as Undervalued
MOS: Potash prices fell 75% from 2022 high, now $305/ton, below long-term marginal cost. Prices to stay low in '24, rise in '25 on strong demand & hit $325/ton LT forecast even with new BHP mine. MOS & NTR ~60% & ~45% below highs, both 4-star. K3 mine cutting costs, specialty phosphates like MicroEssentials a focus. Risks: OCP expansion, BHP's Jansen mine, prices still above costs. No-moat. FVE: $40, 7.5x EV/EBITDA. Upside $75, downside $20. High uncertainty. Std capital allocation.
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