Added to YB: 2026-04-16
Pitch date: 2026-04-16
TWM.TO [bullish]
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.
+81%
current return
Author Info
Company Info
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. operates as a downstream, midstream, and infrastructure company in Western Canada and the United States.
Market Cap
CAD 431.6M
Pitch Price
CAD 10.95
Price Target
27.50 (+39%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
26.26
P/E
-3.96
EV/Sales
0.75
Sector
Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels
Category
turnaround
30% Levered FCF Yield but Bad Balance Sheet, Bad Business?
TWM.TO: CA$233M mkt cap Canadian downstream/midstream w/ Prince George refinery (oligopoly, 'monopoly features' per BCUC, no competitor within 600km). Ugly 2025 (US renewal diesel dumping, HDRD outages) fully reversed: crack spreads ~$113/bbl, D4 RINs surging, R100 contracts, 2026 EBITDA guide $150-170M (~2023 levels), ~30% levered FCF yield. Catalysts: $60M asset sales, TWR re-merger, Ram River restart, deleveraging <3x by YE26. Bull PT CA$25-30. Risks: crack spread reversal, 2027 R100 renewal, covenant cushion (4 waivers/18mo), policy reversal.
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