Added to YB: 2026-08-04
Pitch date: 2026-07-31
AXTI [bullish]
AXT, Inc.
+20.71%
current return
Author Info
Shawarma Capital wraps deep research on hardware, semis, defense autonomy, and more, into long-form memos you can actually digest. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates.
Market Cap
$3.9B
Pitch Price
$56.89
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
228.93
P/E
843.21
EV/Sales
28.62
Sector
Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
Category
growth
$AXTI, Part 1. The Crystal Under the Laser, a 165 Percent Quarter, and the Permit Office in Beijing That Actually Sets the Revenue
AXTI (new position): InP substrate maker for AI optical transceivers. Q2 rev $47.6M (+165% YoY) beat $34.8M est; GM swung from -6.4% to 44.9% in 5 quarters on volume/fixed-cost leverage. Sept guide $66M. Key insight: revenue gated by China export permits (60-day cycle), not demand—creates mechanical air pockets that are buyable, and reported rev is demand floor. $91.2M customer prepayments (incl Lumentum to 2031) corroborate demand. Risks: 50% US tariff closes NA market, insider selling $86-115, 2028 supply wave, Tongmei STAR listing. At $58, 59% below May high, ~25x TTM sales / 12x fwd. Starter 15k shares, accumulate on weakness.
Read full article (8 min)