Added to YB: 2026-08-03
Pitch date: 2026-07-30
LITE [neutral]
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
-4.55%
current return
Author Info
PhotonCap is an independent photonics and semiconductor research platform. It covers silicon photonics, CPO, semiconductors, AI, and adjacent technologies, all interpreted through the lens of optics. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Market Cap
$55.5B
Pitch Price
$748.00
Price Target
1.4K (+102%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
106.63
P/E
135.73
EV/Sales
22.38
Sector
Communications Equipment
Category
growth
A Conversation with Lumentum
LITE (overview): Photonics leader w/ ~60% EML market share, sole high-speed supplier at volume. Rev nearly doubled YoY, margins turned positive; Nvidia invested $2B convertible preferred + purchase deal. AI optics bottleneck thesis: demand ~30% above supply, EML sold out, pricing locked via LTAs through FY27, CPO scale-up second S-curve in late '27. Bears: Coherent 6' InP wafer threat, CPO delays (SemiAnalysis), fast-improving Chinese EMLs (Zetta 200G), 2028 capacity risk, customer concentration (26%/12%). Stock ~20% below ATH; PTs $800-$1,400.
Read full article (17 min)