Added to YB: 2026-06-24
Pitch date: 2026-04-16
RDW [bearish]
Redwire Corporation
-21.08%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
Market Cap
$2.6B
Pitch Price
$11.15
Price Target
2.24 (-83%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-15.66
P/E
-5.69
EV/Sales
7.12
Sector
Aerospace and Defense
Category
value
Redwire Corporation - $RDW (short)
RDW (short): PE-built space roll-up of 11 disparate co's w/ no synergies. Flagship ROSA contracts (Thales/NASA) lapsing = ~$50M FY26 headwind; commercial space station dream dead post-NASA CLD reversal. Aggressive cost-to-cost accounting pulling fwd rev; EAC adjustments ballooned $3.5M→$54.4M, KPMG adverse opinion. Author sees $417M rev vs $471.5M consensus. FCF burn $190.8M, needs dilutive raises. AE Industrial (~24% holder) dumped $601M/27% of FDSO into retail/ETFs. Re-rate 5x→1x EV/Sales = 80% downside. Risks: SpaceX IPO, short squeeze (18% SI).
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