Added to YB: 2026-05-27
Pitch date: 2026-03-24
GOOD [bearish]
Gladstone Commercial Corporation
-21.37%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Gladstone Commercial is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, owning and operating net leased industrial and office properties across the United States.
Market Cap
$627.8M
Pitch Price
$10.86
Price Target
6.57 (-49%)
Dividend
9.25%
EV/EBITDA
13.44
P/E
51.51
EV/Sales
9.63
Sector
Diversified REITs
Category
turnaround
Gladstone Commercial Corporation - $GOOD
GOOD (short): Externally managed net-lease REIT w/ misaligned incentives (fees on acquisition costs, not performance). Low-quality industrial (30yr old) & office (28% ABR) vs peers. Lease maturities jump to 10% ABR/yr (vs 5% historic), incl. GM Austin & ViaSat Denver vacancies = ~4.5% ABR lost. Capex 278-364% of expiring NOI (vs 3% peer avg) signals AFFO/sh could crash $0.70→$0.19 by 2027. Dividend 170% of cash AFFO, uncovered. Trades 8.7% GAAP cap but 8.0% cash cap, ~17x cash AFFO. NAV $8.21 (29% down) vs $11.57 price; should trade 20% below NAV = $6.57 (43% down). Office portfolio mirrors PKST sold at 12.5% cap; industrial mirrors PLYM at 7.5% cap. Catalysts: 2026 lease rolls, dividend cut risk.
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