Added to YB: 2026-05-20
Pitch date: 2026-05-18
TPB [bullish]
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
+0.06%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada.
Market Cap
N/A
Pitch Price
$89.19
Price Target
900.00 (+909%)
Dividend
0.36%
EV/EBITDA
18.28
P/E
30.71
EV/Sales
N/A
Sector
Tobacco
Category
growth
Turning Point Brands ($TPB) is a Secular Growth Story Masking True FCF Power
TPB: High-margin nicotine pouch play (ALP/FRE brands) w/ 50/50 JV via Tucker Carlson for distribution. Targeting 10% US mkt share by 2030 ($1.5-2.5B sales vs $481M LTM). Modern Oral +266% Q4, +133% Q1 to $52M (42% of sales vs 12% in '24). On-shoring Louisville factory H1 '27 to boost gross margins 60%+, EBITDA 25%+. Risks: India tariffs until '27, Tucker key-man risk, FDA denial, flavor ban. Trading ~12x '27 FCF at $90 masking true power as growth CapEx/$70-75M contra-rev/$80-105M sales/marketing investments depress near-term. At scale: 80% gross, 60% EBITDA, 50% FCF margins. Catalysts: new FDA commissioner, PMTA approval, national c-store deals.
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