Added to YB: 2026-04-23
Pitch date: 2026-04-20
ASTS [bullish]
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
+2.83%
current return
Author Info
Shawarma Capital wraps deep research on hardware, semis, defense autonomy, and more, into long-form memos you can actually digest. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States.
Market Cap
$23.7B
Pitch Price
$82.33
Price Target
127.40 (+50%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-105.40
P/E
-60.64
EV/Sales
340.65
Sector
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Category
growth
One Bird Down, Constellation Intact - $ASTS
ASTS: Blue Origin's New Glenn failed deploying BlueBird 7 (insured loss), not ASTS tech failure. Q4'25 rev $54.3M vs $718K Q1'25 shows commercial traction w/ AT&T/Verizon. $2.34B cash, 18-24mo runway. Next launch w/ SpaceX; BlueBird 8+ has composite frame (3-4x fuel, better orbit correction). Rakuten sold $270M shares (overhang) but MNO deal intact. 20.3% short interest. Probability-weighted PT $127 vs $85 current (49% upside). Bull case: 29% IRR. Bear: dilutive raise if launches stall. Risks: capital needs, launch cadence, Rakuten overhang. Q1'26 earnings May 11 key catalyst.
Read full article (15 min)