Added to YB: 2026-04-20
Pitch date: 2026-04-16
NVO [bullish]
Novo Nordisk A/S
+1.24%
current return
Author Info
Investment ideas on Digital Infra, SaaS & Defense. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products.
Market Cap
DKK 1.2T
Pitch Price
DKK 257.20
Price Target
68.00 (-74%)
Dividend
4.49%
EV/EBITDA
8.13
P/E
11.31
EV/Sales
4.07
Sector
Pharmaceuticals
Category
value
Novo Nordisk (NVO) Investment Research: Target Price, Full Valuation Analysis & Monte Carlo Simulation
NVO: Base case FV $61-71 vs $40.81 current (67% upside). Trading 10.6x P/E, 8.5x EV/EBITDA despite 81% gross margin & 62% GLP-1 share—distressed multiples on dominant franchise. 2026 trough: rev -5% to -13%, FCF $7.1B from $10.7B on peak $8.7B capex + 50% price cuts. Recovery drivers: Medicare unlock (15M patients July 1), Wegovy Pill (fastest obesity launch ever, 170k patients mo 1), capex normalization pushing FCF to $14-15B by 2027-28. Reverse SOTP shows obesity franchise priced at 4.2x EBITDA (distressed industrial multiple) vs pharma peers 15-20x. Sept 21 Capital Markets Day key re-rating catalyst. Risks: Lilly price war, CagriSema fail (40% prob), regulatory escalation. $2.1B buyback at $40 signals mgmt conviction. Monte Carlo: 54% prob above current, asymmetric upside to $120+ vs $32 floor. 33% margin of safety.
Read full article (30 min)