Added to YB: 2026-03-26
Pitch date: 2026-01-27
NHC [bearish]
National HealthCare Corporation
-14.31%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals.
Market Cap
$2.5B
Pitch Price
$141.09
Price Target
53.00 (-67%)
Dividend
1.58%
EV/EBITDA
10.70
P/E
21.09
EV/Sales
1.55
Sector
Health Care Providers and Services
Category
special_situation
National HealthCare Corporation - $NHC (short)
NHC (short): 30yr insider lease w/ NHI expires EOY26; rent reset from ~43% below FMV to fair value = $25-35M hike (~20% EBITDA hit). 50% of beds/rev at risk if NHI switches operator. CMS data: 22/80 facilities <2-star health, 49% nurse turnover, potential fraud on quality scores. Must add $23M labor costs to meet new CMS staffing mandates. Medicare Advantage shift cannibalizing higher-margin traditional Medicare. Catalysts: Q4'25 default lawsuit, Q1'26 independent directors replace Adams/Swafford, Q2'26 lease/wage update. PT implies ~58% downside, 3% SI.
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