Added to YB: 2026-03-26
Pitch date: 2026-01-26
TSCO [bearish]
Tractor Supply Company
+17.3%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise.
Market Cap
$24.0B
Pitch Price
$55.49
Price Target
35.00 (-24%)
Dividend
2.10%
EV/EBITDA
11.30
P/E
22.17
EV/Sales
1.92
Sector
Specialty Retail
Category
value
Tractor Supply Company - $TSCO (short)
TSCO (short): Low growth retailer 'over-earned' during pandemic; rev/store flat FY13-FY19 at $4.2M, surged 50% post-COVID but recent comps ~0-1% (negative ex-Fusion remodels contributing ~100bps). New threats: Amazon's $4B rural expansion overlaps 62% of stores, Lowe's added livestock/pet to 1,500 stores, Chewy/Walmart gaining share. OpEx growing HSD on defensive initiatives while D&A doubles vs pre-pandemic. Sale-leaseback gains (~$80M FY25E, 10% of EBIT) masking declines but running out by FY27, creating ~$100M EBIT hole. PT $35 (18x $1.90 adj EPS), 40% downside.
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