Added to YB: 2026-03-20
Pitch date: 2026-03-18
MC [bearish]
Moelis & Company
-2.2%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia.
Market Cap
$3.9B
Pitch Price
$52.80
Price Target
32.00 (-41%)
Dividend
4.88%
EV/EBITDA
N/A
P/E
16.77
EV/Sales
N/A
Sector
Capital Markets
Category
turnaround
Moelis (MC): The M&A Guillotine is Coming
MC (short): Shorting Moelis, a pure-play M&A advisory boutique (~60% M&A rev) facing another downcycle after revenue fell 38% in 2022, then -11% in 2023 (stock lost 50%). Now trades 22x peak-ish earnings vs 14x sector avg, beta 1.89. Estimate 25-35% downside to $32-38 on multiple compression to 15-17x if M&A falls 25-30%. Paired long w/ Houlihan Lokey, #1 restructuring advisor for 11yrs (23% rev from restructuring). HLI fell only 31% in 2022-23 vs MC's 50% due to restructuring hedge. $1.2T loan/bond maturities 2027-29, 4.6x interest coverage (down from 6x) = restructuring tailwind. HLI near 52W low, limited downside vs MC's 25-35% drop potential.
Read full article (10 min)