Added to YB: 2026-03-12
Pitch date: 2026-03-10
TSM [neutral]
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Author Info
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Company Info
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.
Market Cap
TWD 48.0T
Pitch Price
TWD 1.9K
Price Target
700.00 (-64%)
Dividend
1.19%
EV/EBITDA
17.54
P/E
27.92
EV/Sales
12.08
Sector
Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
Category
growth
Deep Dive: TSMC (TSM): Full Valuation Case & Monte Carlo Simulation
TSM (deep dive): Trading at $341 vs $366 DCF base case (~7% upside). At 47th percentile of Monte Carlo, 53% probability undervalued. Market pricing 23% FCF CAGR vs mgmt's 25% guide through 2029; AI accelerator rev growing 50%+ annually. 2026 headwinds: 2-4% gross margin hit from overseas fab ramp, N2 process dilution. Trading 0.62x PEG vs NVDA's 0.72x despite superior 30% ROIC. Geographic diversification could add $80-100/share as Taiwan risk premium compresses. Becomes compelling buy sub-$280 (20x fwd P/E). Risks: AI capex reversal ($220 bear case), tariff escalation, 77% capacity still in Taiwan. Catalysts: 30% rev growth, WACC compression to 10% ($425 target), sustained 65%+ gross margins.
Read full article (14 min)