Added to YB: 2026-03-06
Pitch date: 2026-03-04
GRG.L [neutral]
Greggs plc
Author Info
The Oak Bloke shares analysis of the UK stock market, particularly overlooked small caps. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Greggs plc operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks, as well as ready to drink canned products.
Market Cap
GBP 1.6B
Pitch Price
N/A
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
4.30%
EV/EBITDA
5.92
P/E
13.45
EV/Sales
0.94
Sector
Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure
Category
growth
The Shorts, the egg and the laughing GRG-oyle
GRG.L (holding update): Q4 vindicated as Oak Bloke pick; +1.85% on red day, shorts covering >13% (~£200m). H2 op profit £117.1m vs £119.5m (-£2.4m) despite 5.5% cost inflation & tough market. Sales +6.3% YTD, fastest-growing UK brand per Circana, gained 0.5% mkt share to 8.6%. Revenue/shop +2.1% to £785k (no cannibalisation). 121 net new stores in FY25, targeting 3000 by early 2029. Now #4 in dinner daypart (+9.4% evening rev). Cost inflation moderating to 3% in 2026 (from 5.5%) vs 3%+ price increases already in. Derby facility -£8-9m H2'26 but improves leverage going forward. 1,900 new Tesco Express locations, <10% penetration in drive-thrus/unis/petrol. Delivery orders 3x walk-in size. Capex program nearing completion, serious cash gen ahead. 50p dividend declared.
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