Added to YB: 2026-03-06
Pitch date: 2026-03-04
FOUR [bullish]
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
Author Info
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Company Info
Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally.
Market Cap
$4.1B
Pitch Price
N/A
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
11.31
P/E
46.23
EV/Sales
2.20
Sector
Financial Services
Category
turnaround
Down 50% on my first shares: Is the Shift4 Payments thesis broken?
FOUR (added to position): Down 50% from $86 buy. Thesis: Cross-sell in niche verticals (hotels, restaurants) via disciplined M&A. Reality: $4B net debt from Global Blue deal (12x EBITDA vs 6x for FOUR), GB growth disappointed (MSD vs high-single-digit guide), FY26 FCF flat despite 20-25% EBITDA growth due to interest/preferred dividends. Dropped $1B FCF target. Integration risk underestimated on transformative deal. Still 25% IRR at 6-10x EBITDA exit, but high execution risk. Mistake: 12% position vs 4-6% given leverage/fragility. Added back half of trimmed shares.
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