Added to YB: 2026-03-05
Pitch date: 2026-03-02
AAOI [bearish]
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
-71.93%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China.
Market Cap
$11.1B
Pitch Price
$91.50
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-485.99
P/E
-222.73
EV/Sales
24.39
Sector
Communications Equipment
Category
turnaround
Razor's Edge: AAOI Long to Short ..
AAOI (short): Was long at $30 on AI thematic play, now short at $80. Core issue: 800G transceivers need 100Gb/s EML chips AAOI can't make (stuck on 25Gb DML). Buys EMLs from Coherent (direct competitor), gross margin 25-28% vs 50%+ for vertically integrated rivals. ASP compression will crush margins. $1B rev guide needs $400-600M capex vs $216M cash—stock is ATM. CW pivot right direction but commodity play vs EML moat. 91% rev from 3 customers. CEO projects $4.5B run-rate after 800G rev 'a lot below' $4M in Q4. Insiders sold at $38.
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