Added to YB: 2026-02-24
Pitch date: 2026-02-20
GPK [bullish]
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
-1.63%
current return
Author Info
Chop Wood, Carry Water is a tech manager and investor searching for value-based investments. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, and sells consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Market Cap
$3.7B
Pitch Price
$12.30
Price Target
22.00 (+82%)
Dividend
3.51%
EV/EBITDA
6.58
P/E
8.46
EV/Sales
1.05
Sector
Containers and Packaging
Category
value
Graphic Packaging Is Hiding in Your Cereal Box
GPK: 3 temporary headwinds (Waco startup costs, SBS overcapacity pricing pressure, CPG volume softness) mask quality packaging biz generating ~$700M owner earnings (19% FCF yield). 40% NA folding carton share, vertically integrated recycled board w/ cost advantage vs bleached, $15B plastic-to-fiber addressable mkt. Waco adds $160M EBITDA as it ramps through 2026-27. $700-800M FCF guidance 2026 vs $3.65B mkt cap. Risk: 3.8x leverage, new CEO, SBS pressure persisting. Fair value $22/share vs $12.37 current (78% upside).
Read full article (17 min)