Added to YB: 2026-02-19
Pitch date: 2026-02-15
TOST [neutral]
Toast, Inc.
+0.6%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally.
Market Cap
$16.3B
Pitch Price
$27.48
Price Target
80.00 (+189%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
37.59
P/E
49.39
EV/Sales
2.33
Sector
Financial Services
Category
growth
Toast 4Q25 Earnings: The Price of Ambition
TOST (earnings): Q4 beat but -7% on 2026 margin guide. Market prices it as payments co at 17x fwd EBITDA, but it's a restaurant OS (like Shopify). Core US SMB at 40% EBITDA margins intact, reinvesting into enterprise (drive-thru), international (Australia), retail. Toast IQ AI adopted by 50%+ of 164k locations in 4mo. Hardware costs +150bps headwind. Toast Capital credit risk underpriced in macro downturn. Base case: $40s-low $50s at 18x (55% prob). Bull: $68-80 at 22x if platform thesis plays out (25% prob). Probability-weighted target ~$50 (~90% upside from $26).
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