Added to YB: 2026-02-17
Pitch date: 2026-02-06
STUB [bullish]
StubHub Holdings, Inc.
-5.33%
current return
Author Info
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Company Info
StubHub Holdings, Inc. operates ticketing marketplace for live event tickets worldwide. It buys and sells sports, concerts, theatre, and other live events tickets through its websites and mobile applications under the StubHub and viagogo brand name.
Market Cap
$3.2B
Pitch Price
$9.75
Price Target
45.00 (+388%)
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
-3.48
P/E
-2.01
EV/Sales
2.31
Sector
Entertainment
Category
value
StubHub Holdings (NYSE: STUB) Long Thesis: The Broken IPO of a Global Duopoly
STUB: Dominant 50% mkt share secondary ticketing platform at 7x 2026 EBITDA, priced like dying Vivid ($SEAT down 92%) when actually crushing it (4x bigger, widening). Down 56% from IPO on temporary headwinds: lapping Taylor Swift, FTC all-in pricing rule (-10% rev), FCF timing noise. Normalized Q3 growth 34%. 2026 catalysts: MLB Direct Issuance (primary mkt entry), World Cup (est +5-8% GMS), DOJ v LYV trial (March). Founder reunited w/creation post-$4B buyback, survived COVID revenue→$0, grew GMS 69% since. 80% contribution margin, negative working capital float ($1.3B), can outspend all competitors combined while maintaining 14% EBITDA (vs Vivid 3.5%). Elite holders: Druckenmiller, Waltons (24%), Bessemer, WestCap own 64%. Consensus: 44% 2026 rev growth, >120% EBITDA/FCF conversion. Base case $26 (100% upside), bull $45 (250%). Risk: UK price caps spreading, DOJ loss, recession. Even cutting 2028 FCF consensus in half = too cheap at current levels.
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