Added to YB: 2026-02-16
Pitch date: 2025-12-06
SXC [bearish]
SunCoke Energy, Inc.
+4.42%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
SunCoke Energy, Inc. operates as an independent producer of coke in the Americas and Brazil. It operates through three segments: Domestic Coke, Brazil Coke, and Logistics.
Market Cap
$707.0M
Pitch Price
$6.73
Price Target
4.40 (-32%)
Dividend
5.75%
EV/EBITDA
5.82
P/E
11.14
EV/Sales
0.74
Sector
Metals and Mining
Category
N/A
SunCoke Energy, Inc. - $SXC (short)
SXC (short): Metallurgical coke producer facing 1.6M tons (38% capacity) contract non-renewals by '26 with Cliffs (acquired Stelco w/ internal coke capacity) & US Steel (shuttered BFs at Granite City). Blast furnace steelmaking in structural decline (70% EAF now, 90% by 2040), coke demand down 45% since 2018. Lost volume must hit spot market where EBITDA/ton deeply negative vs ~$70 on contracts. Street at $150M '26 DC EBITDA but math suggests $95-125M realistic, implying 35%+ downside at current multiple + re-rate risk. Mgmt introduced facility 'rationalization' talk Q3 after Algoma breach. High fixed costs mean unprofitable spot sales until closures. GPI conversion option at Granite City requires $250M debt raise, now OTM. Catalysts: YE contract expirations, facility shutdowns, earnings misses, possible dividend cut. International sales impossible vs China pricing. 6% SI, no fundamental institutional holders.
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