Added to YB: 2025-10-30
Pitch date: 2025-10-27
ALGN [bearish]
Align Technology, Inc.
-22.6%
current return
Author Info
Convex Bets is an ex-L/S equity analyst generalist focused on US equities, with 5+ years of experience, mainly in short selling. Sign up for the newsletter.
Company Info
Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally.
Market Cap
$9.8B
Pitch Price
$134.94
Price Target
N/A
Dividend
N/A
EV/EBITDA
10.59
P/E
26.56
EV/Sales
2.25
Sector
Health Care Equipment and Supplies
Category
N/A
ALGN: Expectations Still Need Straightening
ALGN (short): Bear case on discretionary clear aligners facing weakening consumer demand & intense competition from Angel Aligner (20-35% cheaper). DSO up to 101 days, deferred revenue declining. Q4'25 +4% growth guidance vs -2% Q2 appears optimistic. FY26 +6% consensus too high. Trading at 16x FCF, lowest ever. ITC case vs Angel could limit competition.
Read full article (5 min)