Added to YB: 2025-04-22
Pitch date: 2025-03-05
FSS [bearish]
Federal Signal Corporation
-39.46%
current return
Author Info
No bio for this author
Company Info
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally.
Market Cap
$7.0B
Pitch Price
$80.04
Price Target
56.00 (-50%)
Dividend
0.53%
EV/EBITDA
15.33
P/E
25.95
EV/Sales
3.19
Sector
Machinery
Category
special_situation
Federal Signal Corporation - $FSS
FSS short: ARPA funding expires 12/31/24 (likely 80%+ of post-2021 growth), with orders/backlog set to collapse in Q1-25. 21x P/E on $3.77 FY25E EPS too rich given ARPA-driven margins (20% vs 14-15% normal). IIJA won't fill gap - slower, more bureaucratic, different end market. Canadian competitors (Badger, Tornado) gaining share on price. Base case: 30% downside to $56 (13% EBIT margins, $2.63 EPS).
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